🥇📊📈Gold Rebuilds Momentum as $4,500 Comes Into Focus 💥

Gold has returned to the $4,400 area following a prolonged period of correction, with momentum strengthening across international markets. On 12 August, the metal reached $4,408.6, marking an 8.9% recovery from its 23 July level and bringing prices back towards territory last seen in June.

The immediate catalyst is a change in expectations for US monetary policy. July inflation came in at 3.4% year on year, broadly matching market forecasts, while expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate increase subsequently eased. With inflation showing no fresh acceleration and the labor market losing some momentum, the case for maintaining an increasingly restrictive policy stance has weakened — a supportive development for non-yielding gold.

The risk remains two-sided. Higher oil prices could revive inflationary pressure, while a further escalation in geopolitical tensions could complicate the Fed’s policy outlook. If markets begin pricing a more hawkish rate path again, higher yields and a stronger dollar could limit gold’s upside.

🏦 Central-bank buying provides a second layer of support. Official-sector gold purchases increased by 232 tones during Q2, demonstrating that demand remains substantial despite elevated prices. China added approximately 15 tones in June, extending its purchasing program to 20 consecutive months, with further buying reported in July.

🌏 Asia is also becoming increasingly important to the structure of the gold market. Hong Kong launched trial operations of a centralized gold clearing and settlement system on 7 July, alongside the introduction of the HAU pricing ticker. The initiative strengthens the connection between Hong Kong and Shanghai and supports the development of a more independent Asian infrastructure for physical gold trading.

📊 The broader picture is therefore becoming more constructive. Gold is recovering from its correction with three important forces behind it: softer expectations for Fed policy, persistent central-bank demand and the continued development of Asian gold-market infrastructure.

🎯 $4,500 is now the immediate test. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish structure and shift market attention towards the next major psychological target at $5,000.

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