Gold Starts the Week on the Upside as Investors Weigh Trump’s Tariff Threat

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that 1 August would serve as a strict deadline for implementing so-called ‘mirror duties’, though negotiations could extend beyond that date. He indicated that a base tariff of 10% might apply to smaller trading partners.

Earlier in July, Trump notified more than twenty trading partners of new tariff rates, with some items facing levies as high as 40%.

However, last week’s robust US economic data has tempered expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, thereby capping gold’s upside potential for now.

Investors are now focused on upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman, seeking fresh signals on the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is continuing its upward movement towards $3,384. Today, we anticipate the pair will reach this level before undergoing a corrective pullback to $3,333. The market is effectively forming a broad consolidation range around $3,344.

A breakout above this range could extend gains toward $3,494. Conversely, a downside breach may trigger a decline toward $3,235. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around $3,333, having briefly declined to $3,310. The current structure suggests a fresh upward wave towards at least $3,390, followed by a retest of $3,333 from above. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains bullish in the short term, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, though expectations regarding Fed policy may limit further gains. Traders should monitor key resistance at $3,384 and support at $3,333 for directional cues.

DisclaimerAny forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.