Gold Under Pressure The Week Ends on a Sour Note

President Donald Trump confirmed the introduction of a 10% global baseline tariff, alongside retaliatory duties of up to 41% on nations without trade agreements with the US. Additionally, a 40% tariff has been imposed on goods suspected of evading sanctions via third countries.

Further dampening sentiment, fresh US inflation data revealed that both the core and headline PCE index for June had exceeded expectations, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s willingness to cut interest rates as early as September. The dual impact of trade tensions and persistent inflation has eroded gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Market attention now turns to the US non-farm payrolls report for July, which could provide clearer signals on the Fed’s next moves and shape short-term expectations for precious metals.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating within a broad range around 2,298 USD. A downward breakout today could see prices test 2,255 USD, with potential further declines towards 2,247 USD, representing just the first half of the third wave in the broader downtrend. The ultimate target for this bearish wave sits at 2,055 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair continues to trade in a consolidation pattern near 2,298 USD. A drop to 2,263 USD appears likely today, possibly followed by a rebound towards 2,298 USD before another decline to 2,255 USD, extending towards 2,247 USD. The Stochastic oscillator validates this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid trade-related uncertainties and hawkish Fed expectations. A break below key support levels could accelerate declines, while any dovish surprises in US data may offer temporary relief.

DisclaimerAny forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.