Gold’s Downturn Won’t Last: Global Risks Remain Elevated

Key Drivers Behind Gold’s Movements

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that high tariffs between the U.S. and China must be reduced before trade negotiations progress. However, he stressed that President Donald Trump would not unilaterally remove tariffs on Chinese goods

Trump’s immediate focus includes exempting automakers from certain tariffs following weeks of intense discussions with industry leaders—a move that has partially eased concerns over trade complications.

Gold has surged over 30% since the start of the year, and the gold-to-silver ratio has hit its highest level since 1994 (excluding the pandemic period).

The primary catalyst behind gold’s rally is waning confidence in U.S. economic exceptionalism, driven by escalating trade barriers and unpredictable policy shifts. This has prompted investors to shift from U.S. assets to gold as a safe haven.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, the market is forming a downside wave structure to the 3225 level. Today we will consider the probability of reaching this target level. Further we will consider the probability of correction development to the level of 3363. After the completion of this correction, we will consider the probability of a new wave of decline to the level of 3055. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above the zero level and is directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart of XAU/USD the market formed a consolidation range around the level of 3363 and worked off the third wave of decline to the level of 3260 with a downward exit. Today the correction to the level of 6363 is executed. In the future it will be relevant to consider the development of the fifth wave of decline to the level of 3232, at least. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under the level of 50 and is directed strictly downwards to the level of 20.

Conclusion

Despite recent volatility, gold’s long-term bullish case remains intact, supported by persistent global risks and shifting investor sentiment.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.