Is the Bear Market for Nikkei 225 Over?

Ultima Markets presents an in-depth look at the Nikkei225 for December 3, 2025.

Is the Nikkei225 Ready to Rebound?

After hitting an all-time high of 52,760 in late October, the Nikkei225 has entered a corrective phase within its broader trend. The price has retraced to the Black Moving Average, which has provided solid support. At this crucial juncture, the market is testing a potential rebound from this support. Recent candles are small, indicating that while selling pressure has eased, strong buying momentum hasn't fully returned. The market seems to be awaiting a trigger to push it back above the key 50,000 mark.

Key Levels

The key support level currently lies between 47,800 and 48,000, coinciding with the recent swing low and the rising Black Moving Average. This zone has been tested several times recently, with each bounce reinforcing strong buying interest. Below this, structural support is found at 45,880, a breakout point from September and October. If the Black MA fails to hold, the price could likely fall toward this secondary support level.

Nikkei225 Teeters at a Crucial Turning Point

The H2 chart shows a balanced outlook with a slight bullish bias, supported by the rising Stochastic indicator and the series of higher lows since November 21st. However, the market remains in a cautious "wait-and-see" phase. Traders should focus on the 49,710 level, which acts as a key pivot point. A breakout above this could drive prices towards 50,400, while a failure to break through may lead to a pullback to 49,200.

Breakout Scenarios

The market is at a crossroads with two possible outcomes. A bullish breakout would occur with a confirmed H2 candle close above both the Green MA and the resistance at 49,710, supported by the Stochastic moving into overbought territory (indicating a strong trend) and the Purple MA crossing above the Green MA. This would target the range high at 50,450, with a potential extension to 51,300 if surpassed. On the other hand, a bearish rejection would be triggered by failure to break 49,710, followed by a drop below 49,200, confirmed by the Stochastic crossing back below 80/50, which would aim for a retest of the 48,600 support zone.

Pattern at 49,100 Poised to Make the Next Big Move

Around the 49,100 area, price action has carved out a potential base that resembles either an Inverse Head and Shoulders or a more complex Double Bottom. The market is now pushing into the neckline resistance of this structure.

Bullish Breakout (Gap Fill)

On the upside, buyers are leaning into the Green Moving Average as price grinds higher. A clean 30-minute close above the recent swing high at 49,760 would be the trigger for a momentum push. The first objective sits near the grey line at 49,883, and if buyers keep control beyond that point, the next target would be the 50,170–50,200 zone, where liquidity clusters and the downside gap from 1 December could be fully filled.

Bearish Rotation (Resistance Hold)

If that resistance band proves too tough, the Green Moving Average may instead act as a ceiling. A drop back below the moving-average cluster around 49,450 would signal that the rebound has fizzled. In that case, price would likely rotate lower to retest support at 49,280, with downside risk extending toward the prior lows near 49,110.

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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.