No US-Iran Talks in Sight, Markets Brace for Jackson Hole

Market Wrap-up: Oil Rises on Iran Standoff, Jackson Hole in FocusOil prices and the US dollar extended their gains in the latest session, as markets turned their attention back to the Middle East. Washington confirmed the US is not holding talks with Iran, despite diplomatic efforts from other nations, raising concerns that uncertainty surrounding regional oil supplies could persist.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an interview, "No negotiations are happening right now, and this will continue until the president feels that maybe they come to the table in a meaningful way. We have not seen that yet,"

Brent crude rose 2.2% to $89.79 a barrel, while US WTI crude gained 1.7% to $83.66 a barrel.

Simmering geopolitical tension left the US dollar trading without clear direction on Thursday, struggling to hold onto the previous day's gains. As a result, gold edged up only 0.4%, to $4,609.97 an ounce.

One factor helping to keep the dollar steady was a lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims reading, which pointed to continued strength in the US labour market. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell from 207,000 to 203,000, below the forecast of 208,000.

Meanwhile on Wall Street, the latest earnings from Nvidia and a string of other major tech companies lifted investor sentiment, helping tech stocks post their strongest session since 4 August.

At the close of trading, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.57% to 26,541.35 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 7,730.99 points. The Dow Jones added 105.56 points, or 0.2%, to close at 53,569.44 points.

Nvidia shares jumped 8.7% after the company beat analysts' expectations and issued a strong revenue outlook. Notably, Nvidia's revenue is projected to grow 70% in fiscal year 2028, well above the 44% consensus forecast among analysts surveyed by LSEG.

Semiconductor-related stocks rallied broadly too, with Broadcom up 4.5%, while SK Hynix and Intel gained 2% and 4% respectively.

Market focus now shifts to Warsh's speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming later today. Markets expect the Fed Chair to use his first address at the event to lay out the path back to the Fed's inflation target, as well as the role of the bond market in that strategy.

Alongside this, the annual revision of the non-farm payrolls report and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also draw market attention.

DXY:

Key takeaway:

The dollar traded without clear direction on Thursday, struggling to extend Wednesday's gains as geopolitical tension over Iran kept sentiment mixed.A stronger-than-expected labour market print provided support: initial jobless claims fell to 203,000 from 207,000, beating the 208,000 forecast.Markets now turn to Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech for signals on the path back to the inflation target and the bond market's role in that strategy.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: BullishSupport: 99.11Resistance: 99.29   

Gold:

Key takeaway:

Gold edged up just 0.4% to $4,609.97/oz, capped by a resilient dollar despite renewed Middle East risk.Washington's confirmation that no talks are underway with Iran kept a geopolitical bid under the metal, but gains stayed shallow.Direction likely hinges on Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, the annual non-farm payrolls revision and final Michigan consumer sentiment data.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Bullish with Correction RiskSupport: 4,564  Resistance: 4,618 

WTI:

Key takeaway:

Brent crude rose 2.2% to $89.79/bbl and WTI gained 1.7% to $83.66/bbl as markets refocused on Middle East supply risk.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed no negotiations are taking place with Iran, and none will resume until the president sees a credible willingness to negotiate. This renewed concerns that uncertainty surrounding regional oil supplies could persistThe continued diplomatic impasse may keep geopolitical risks in focus for oil markets. 

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Bullish with Correction RiskSupport: 80.66  Resistance: 84.74 

Nasdaq:

Key takeaway:

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.57% to 26,541.35, its strongest session since 4 August, driven by blowout earnings from Nvidia and other megacap tech names.Nvidia surged 8.7% after beating estimates and guiding for FY2028 revenue growth of 70%, far above the 44% consensus tracked by LSEG.Semiconductor names rallied broadly, with Broadcom up 4.5%, Intel up 4%, and SK Hynix up 2%, lifting the S&P 500 and Dow Jones alongside the Nasdaq. 

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: BullishSupport: 26,000  Resistance: 26,877   

Calendar Watch:

Fed Chair Warsh's keynote speech at Jackson Hole, a key focus for clues on the inflation path and the bond market's role in Fed strategy.Annual Revision non-farm payrolls report.Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentment Index. 

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