Technical Analysis – USDJPY anchored at 20‑day SMA, holds 158.00-159.00 range
USDJPY is edging higher for the second consecutive session toward the 159.00 level, with price action supported by the 20‑day simple moving average (SMA), which has been holding gains since late February as markets await fresh updates on prospects for an end to the Mideast conflict.
That said, investors remain sceptical about a near‑term resolution despite the improvement in sentiment. This is reflected in the momentum indicators – the MACD remains in positive territory but is losing steam below its red signal line, while the RSI is flatlining just above the 50 neutral threshold.
If the pair resumes its rebound, initial resistance emerges at the monthly peak near 159.90, also a two‑year high, followed by the key FX intervention line for Japan at 160.50, last touched in April 2024.
On the downside, a breach of 158.50 cannot be ruled out. A decline could target last week’s swing‑low support at 157.50, which would shift focus toward a corrective phase, exposing stronger support at the converging 50‑ and 100‑day SMAs near the March 5 cycle low at 156.40, before heading toward the February lows near 155.50.
To sum up, USDJPY reflects market scepticism over a quick end to the conflict, holding steady within a newly formed range. For now, the bias remains neutral, with the broader uptrend on pause as the pair hesitates around the 158.00-159.00 region. Holding this area though, is key to limiting downside risks.
The yen is strengthening before our very eyes
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