Technical Outlook on GOLD, USDJPY, EURUSD

US nonfarm payrolls → Gold

Gold is nursing one of its worst monthly corrections since 2008, poised to close March around 4,532, down roughly 15% from February's closing price. The sell-off paused recently near the 200-day SMA, giving traders a chance to catch their breath. With Western economies celebrating Easter in a shortened trading week and Middle East energy disruptions keeping the dollar supported, the precious metal is at a crossroads: will it stabilize or continue sliding?

The spotlight this week is on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due on Good Friday. After February’s sharp ‑92k surprise, March forecasts point to a modest +55k gain, with unemployment and hourly earnings expected steady at 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Markets are pricing in no major interest rate changes this year, so any data surprise could reshape expectations, at least for this week. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Harvard University later today, and any hints on the central bank's thinking could potentially cause a move in the dollar, the battered US Treasuries and precious metals.

Technically, gold is showing short-term stability. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could boost the odds of a single rate cut, shifting the eyes to the nearby resistance of 4,650 and then towards the 20-day SMA near 4,800. Conversely, stronger-than-expected jobs figures could push gold back toward its 200-day SMA around 4,118, keeping sellers in control.

Intervention Risks → USDJPY

USDJPY touched 160.45 earlier today- the highest since July 2024 - as yen weakness meets repeated threats of official FX intervention. So far, it’s been all talk, no action.

This week, the pair will react to both U.S. data (ISM Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls) and Japanese releases (Business PMIs, Tokyo CPI) as Prime Minister Takaichi meets President Macron in Japan.  

Technically, USDJPY retains a bullish bias as long as it stays above 158.00 and the 20-day SMA near 159.00. Traders can watch for a potential extension toward 161.88 and the 2024 high of 162.00 if the US data beats forecasts and Japan holds back on intervention. Otherwise, disappointing US figures or yen support measures could trigger sharp moves. 

Eurozone CPI → EURUSD

In the Eurozone, attention turns to flash CPI for March, due Tuesday, following the ECB’s latest meeting, which signaled a flexible policy stance. Officials left the door open for a rate hike if the Iran conflict triggers a renewed surge in inflation, making upcoming CPI inflation figures important to watch.

Headline CPI is expected to rise sharply to 2.7% y/y from 1.9%, while the core measure, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, may ease slightly to 2.3% y/y from 2.4%, indicating that rising oil prices have yet to fully feed through to consumer prices.

For EURUSD, an upside surprise in core inflation could spark a rebound, allowing the pair to challenge the 1.1630 bar, and potentially retest 1.1700. However, the short-term trajectory remains bearish, and with the pair pulling recently below the 20-day SMA, the risk is still skewed to the downside. A break below 1.1400 could activate fresh selling, extending the 2026 downtrend towards 1.1200–1.1280.