Today Fundamental Analysis: Stocks Gain as Oil Falls Ahead of the Fed and Big Tech Earnings

U.S. stock futures advanced on Monday as a pause in fighting between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices sharply lower. S&P 500 futures rose 0.7%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 1.1%. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei edging 0.1% higher, South Korea’s KOSPI falling 1.1%, and the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan trading nearly unchanged.

Brent crude dropped 5.2% to around $91.73 per barrel after Iran said it would halt attacks as long as the United States did the same. The decline eased immediate oil-related pressures, although Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities along the Red Sea coast showed that risks to regional energy routes remain.

Lower oil prices helped the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fall four basis points to 4.63% and weakened the dollar. Markets slightly reduced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, although traders still saw roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate increase at this week’s meeting. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday remains the main macroeconomic catalyst.

Gold rose as lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns and the weaker dollar supported demand. Gold gained around 1% to trade near $4,088, with its immediate direction likely to remain sensitive to oil prices, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s policy guidance. Silver surged toward $60.00. Silver had previously underperformed as the Middle East conflict drove oil and inflation expectations higher, increasing pressure on non-yielding assets. With oil now retreating, the interest-rate outlook has become more supportive for precious metals. Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged.

Technology earnings will provide another major source of volatility. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Qualcomm are among the companies reporting this week. Following recent concerns about the cost of AI investment, traders will focus closely on cloud growth, capital expenditure, margins, and free cash flow. Microsoft is scheduled to report after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday.