US July CPI Inflation Data Preview & Forecast (12 August): Key to USD and gold's next moves | ATFX
All eyes are on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on August 12, 2026. Following last week's shock Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report—which revealed a contraction of 23,000 jobs against expectations of 85,000—market participants are pricing a 50/50 probability for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. In this comprehensive trading preview, ATFX Chief Market Analyst Nick Twidale breaks down the anticipated headline and core CPI prints, evaluates the interplay between softening economic data and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and outlines actionable trading strategies across major asset classes.📊 Key Market Insights:
- US median inflation expectations moderated to 3.6% ahead of the print
- Core CPI month-on-month expectations sit at 0.2%, with year-on-year projections at 2.5%
- A weaker inflation print will likely compress US Treasury yields, weigh on the US dollar, and propel gold toward record resistance levels.
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