Can Falling Yields Fuel Bitcoin’s Next Leg Higher?

Bitcoin is holding steady around $86,000 on Tuesday as falling U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices provide some support.  The largest cryptocurrency is unchanged over the past 24 hours and is trading 3% higher so far in October, which has historically been one of Bitcoin's strongest months.

Oil and Treasury yields fall

BTC’s resilience comes as oil prices fall and Treasury yields ease from multi-decade highs. Oil has fallen 2% amid climbing Middle East exports, with Brent below $100 a barrel and WTI at $87. Oil has fallen more than 5% over 3 days, easing some inflation concerns.  

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 5.25%, after reaching 5.35% on Monday, its highest level since 2002. The decline in yields has also weighed on the U.S. dollar, creating a near-term tailwind for Bitcoin.

While yields are easing back today, they need to continue falling to provide a more bullish backdrop for BTC. For that to happen, oil prices must decline further to calm inflation concerns more.  

Data yesterday showed that ISM services PMI came in at 54.9 in September, in line with expectations but down from August's stronger reading. Markets are now pricing in a 78% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting, compared with a 70% probability of a hike just 10 days ago. The shift in October rate-hike expectations supports Bitcoin.

The main event on the macro calendar this week will be the release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting. The market will scrutinize the minutes for clues about the future path of monetary policy. Even slightly hawkish minutes could raise expectations for further Fed tightening, potentially pushing yields and the dollar higher and dampening demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Institutional Demand & Profit Taking

Bitcoin institutional demand softened at the start of the week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.9 million of outflows on Monday after two straight days of inflows. September saw strong BTC ETF inflows and October is so far recording a fourth straight month of net inflows. Strong inflows could lift BTC out of its recent range.

Strategy acquired a further 334 BTC last week, extending its buying streak to three consecutive weeks. Strategy’s renewed focus on accumulation serves as a counterweight to weaker ETF demand and supports the broader bullish case.

Elsewhere, on-chain data showed Bitcoin holders booking profits, potentially limiting upside. Santiment's realised P&L showed a spike on Monday to its highest level since November 2025, suggesting holders are selling into strength and increasing near-term selling pressure.

The question here is whether oil and yields can continue falling and generate enough fresh demand to absorb profit-taking.

Bitcoin Forecast – Technical Analysis

Bitcoin's recovery from the $57.7k 2026 low ran into resistance at $87.3k before easing back. The price remains within a familiar range, capped by $87k on the upside and $82.5k on the downside.

Bitcoin continues to trade above its 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping the technical outlook constructive.

Buyers will look to rise above $87.2k to bring $90k into focus, followed by $95k.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $82.5, around the late-September low and May high. A break below here would expose the 50 EMA at $79.4k, before attention turns to the 200 EMA at $75k.

The setup therefore remains constructive while Bitcoin holds above $82.5, but a sustained break above $87.2k is needed to signal that buyers are regaining control. 

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