Gold: No treat, just a brutal trick
Overview: Gold found modest footing on Monday after a brutal Halloween finale that plunged the price 3.5% to a one-year low of 3,869. The sell-off ignited after buyers faltered at the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 2022-2026 uptrend and repeatedly failed to breach the 20-day SMA, firmly reviving the 2026 downtrend.
Momentum: With both the RSI and stochastic oscillator hovering near oversold zone, the bears could soon take a breather.
Bearish scenario: A lower high near the summer support of 3,970 could trigger a fresh leg down toward 3,850. Failure to pivot there may target the March support line at 3,720, while sustained selling risks opening the trapdoor toward the 50% Fibonacci of 3,610.
Risk: A close above 4,000 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Gold buying by central banks has hit its highest rate since 2024.
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