Today Fundamental Analysis: Dow Jones and the S&P 500 break new record highs on strong earnings

US stock Futures are pointing modestly higher Thursday after the Dow closed at a record the day before, up 0.5% closing at 54,407 for its fifth straight positive session, even though the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to snap a four-day win streak and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% as investors rotated out of tech for profits. Nvidia was the standout, rallying more than 3% after Elon Musk said SpaceX would use Nvidia chips exclusively for its AI infrastructure. Additionally, The Trump administration disclosed in a Tuesday court filing that it has refunded roughly $100 billion of tariff revenue collected under the "liberation day" duties that the Supreme Court struck down back in February.

On the macro side, Fed Governor Lisa Cook struck a more hawkish note, saying she's prepared to act on a rate hike if disinflation doesn't continue, warning that five years of above-target inflation raises the risk it becomes baked into wage and price behavior. That tension sits alongside Wednesday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls up just 44,000 in July, well short of expectations and concentrated mostly in healthcare, reinforcing bets that a September hike is less likely. Jobless claims are due Thursday morning, with the real test being July's official payrolls report Friday.

Gold rode that weak ADP data plus hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to its highest level since late June, spiking as high as $4,295 before settling near $4,262. Oil moved the other way, with Brent easing 0.3% to $79.20 and WTI down 0.5% to $74.80 on signs of progress in Iran-Oman talks that could lead to a broader U.S.-Iran agreement. Iran's deputy foreign minister said the U.S. was ready to return to commitments while denying active negotiations, after Trump had signaled a deal was in the works.

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