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Today Fundamental Analysis: Oil prices continue to rise as attacks on shipping routes intensify
Oil prices extended their rally on Tuesday, with Brent rising 2% to $107.80 and WTI gaining 1.9% to $103.45, as fresh Houthi strikes and Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping intensified supply concerns. The closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, further tightened the market, while continued attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
In the US stock market, futures fell on Tuesday as investors braced for Wednesday’s Fed decision, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Rising yields, driven by inflation concerns from the US-Iran conflict, are increasing pressure on equity valuations.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin rose 1.9% to around $78,204 after the US Senate released a revised CLARITY Act, which aims to address concerns around banking, ethics and illicit-finance safeguards. If approved, clearer crypto regulation could encourage greater institutional adoption. However, Bitcoin remains under pressure from the broader macro environment, with markets pricing a 92% probability of a 25-bps Fed rate hike.
Gold remains under pressure below $4,300, trading near a one-month low as investors await this week’s major central-bank decisions. Higher oil prices and last week’s hotter US inflation data have strengthened expectations for a more hawkish Fed, weighing on the non-yielding metal.
The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will all announce policy decisions this week, with particular focus on the Fed’s updated economic projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance on future rates. The outcome could drive major moves in the US dollar, Treasury yields and gold.
Gold buying by central banks has hit its highest rate since 2024.
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