Today Fundamental Analysis: Oil Prices Retreat After Trump Postpones the Attack on Iran

Oil prices declined on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said he had postponed a planned military strike on Iran following requests from leaders in the Middle East, easing fears of an immediate escalation in the Middle East.

Brent crude fell more than 2% to around $109 per barrel, while WTI dropped to nearly $107. Trump said the attack was delayed to allow more time for discussions with Iran, though he warned that further action remains possible.

Despite the pullback, markets continue pricing in ongoing supply disruption risks in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping flows remain significantly below normal levels, keeping concerns about global crude supply tightness elevated.

On Monday, the Nasdaq declined 0.5% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.08%, while the Dow Jones managed to rise 0.3%. The pullback comes after U.S. indices recently hit fresh record highs.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly traded higher on Tuesday. Japan’s economy grew an annualized 2.1% in the first quarter, beating expectations of 1.7%, though the data does not yet reflect the full impact of the Iran war. Japan’s Nikkei pared earlier gains to trade flat, while the Topix rose 0.6%. South Korea’s markets underperformed, with the Kospi falling nearly 3.9% and the Kosdaq down 3.4%.

Gold prices continued falling on Tuesday, staying near their lowest levels since late March, as a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy pressured the precious metal.

Markets have largely ruled out Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2026 and are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike later this year due to rising energy prices and inflation concerns. Investors are now focusing on upcoming FOMC minutes and further Middle East developments for additional direction, though the overall outlook for gold remains tilted to the downside.

AUTHOR

Ghassan Albohtori 

Financial Market Analyst - STARTRADER

Ghassan Albohtori is a financial market analyst with experience in macroeconomics, investing, and currency trading. He conducts in-depth market research covering fundamental and technical analysis of different instruments to find major changes in market trends. Mr. Ghassan's main focus is the effects of economic data on different asset classes and how this affects prices.

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