NVIDIA Climbs Amid Hopes for Improved US-China Relations

Key Takeaways

• NVIDIA’s stock rose after CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump’s China delegation, fueling hopes for improved market access.
• China remains a key risk for NVIDIA, with its revenue from the region dropping significantly due to US export restrictions.
• Upcoming Q1 earnings are expected to show strong growth, with a 79% rise in revenue and a 119% increase in adjusted EPS.
• Geopolitical tensions and trade talks with China add further volatility to NVIDIA’s outlook, especially concerning semiconductor exports.
• Technical levels remain critical, with key resistance at $223 and $228, while support lies near $214 and $208.

NVIDIA’s stock rose 1% to trade at $221.27, after hitting a session high of $223.63, as CEO Jensen Huang’s involvement in President Trump’s China delegation sparked optimism. The company’s revenue from China has sharply declined, highlighting the ongoing risk that trade relations pose to NVIDIA’s growth, but the high-level talks could provide a path toward better market access.

Geopolitical Concerns and China’s Impact

While NVIDIA’s AI growth story and strong earnings prospects continue to support the stock, uncertainty around US-China relations remains a key overhang. Huang’s presence in the delegation signals a potential for improved access to China, where NVIDIA’s business has been severely impacted by US export restrictions. The company’s reliance on Chinese sales, which represented 32% of total revenue in 2024, is a critical factor for traders and analysts to monitor.

Q1 Earnings and AI Optimism

NVIDIA is set to report Q1 earnings on May 20, with analysts expecting a substantial revenue increase of 79% and adjusted EPS growth of 119%. Despite these strong projections, the stock may face challenges if traders have already priced in high expectations. The market will be watching closely for any updates on China-related issues, AI chip demand, and overall supply chain disruptions.

Technical Outlook

NVIDIA’s price is testing resistance at $223 and $228, with immediate support around $214 and $208. The stock remains bullish in the medium term, but short-term momentum will depend on breaking these key levels. A successful breakout could propel the stock toward new highs, while failure to break above resistance may lead to a consolidation phase.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Traders should closely monitor developments in US-China trade talks, particularly regarding semiconductor exports and market access. Additionally, NVIDIA’s Q1 earnings will provide insight into the company’s growth trajectory, with attention focused on AI chip demand, revenue breakdowns, and margin expansion.

A strong earnings report, coupled with favorable China news, could further fuel the stock’s rally, while geopolitical risks may cap upside momentum.

Discover how China policy, earnings results, and geopolitical risk factors could impact NVIDIA in this article.