Oil Prices Near $100 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Rise

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude rose to $106.06, while WTI climbed to $96.56.
• Brent gained 17.13% over the week, while WTI rose 15.13%.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains the main risk point, with around 20% of global oil and LNG flows normally passing through it.
• CL-OIL is trading near 96.40, with 97.24 acting as the first key resistance level.

Oil has moved from a fear trade into a full supply-risk trade. Brent crude rose 0.94% to $106.06 a barrel, while WTI climbed 0.73% to $96.56 as traders reacted to renewed stress around the Strait of Hormuz.

The weekly move shows how quickly the market has repriced the risk. Brent gained 17.13% through the week, while WTI rose 15.13%, marking the second-largest weekly gain since the war began. Both benchmarks also settled more than 3% higher on Thursday after fresh military headlines lifted the supply-risk premium.

Hormuz risk hits more than crude

The Strait of Hormuz remains the centre of the oil rally. Around 20% of global oil and LNG normally flows through the route, making any closure or disruption a major risk for energy markets.

The impact goes beyond crude prices. Traders are also pricing freight delays, higher war insurance, refinery pressure, LNG stress, and the chance that fuel inflation moves back into consumer prices. Asia is especially exposed, as a large share of LNG passing through Hormuz is directed to the region.

Oil strength raises inflation concerns

Higher oil prices can quickly feed into broader market expectations. If crude stays near or above $100, traders may reassess inflation risk, rate-cut expectations, bond yields, and dollar demand.

That could pressure rate-sensitive equities and sectors linked to transport, airlines, manufacturing, and consumer spending. Energy producers may benefit from higher prices, but the wider equity market may struggle if oil strength is seen as an inflation tax rather than a growth signal.

CL-OIL tests key resistance

From a technical perspective, CL-OIL is trading near 96.40 after pulling back from the 105 to 106 resistance zone. Price is holding above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, but the 20-day moving average near 97.24 is acting as the first major barrier.

Resistance sits near 97.50, followed by 100.00 and 105.90. Support is seen at 95.00, then 91.50 and 87.00. A clean move above 97.50 could open the path toward the psychological 100.00 level, while a break below 95.00 may expose a deeper pullback toward 91.50.

Read the full analysis on how Hormuz supply risk, LNG pressure, inflation concerns and key oil price levels are shaping crude next move in this article.